Fracture Case
Estimated return of 36.1% on every open — a 63.9% house edge at live Skinport prices.
Estimated RTP 36.1%
House edge 63.9%
Cost to open $3.26
key $2.49 + case $0.77
Chance to profit 4.1%
Most valuable drops
Rare Special ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade $492.96
Rare Special ★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter $374.33
Rare Special ★ Nomad Knife | Fade $333.18
Rare Special ★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened $327.13
Rare Special ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web $305.62
What's inside & the odds
Mil-Spec Grade
79.9%- Negev | Ultralight $0.15
- P2000 | Gnarled $0.26
- SG 553 | Ol' Rusty $0.15
- SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 $0.23
- P250 | Cassette $0.19
- P90 | Freight $0.18
- PP-Bizon | Runic $0.19
Restricted
16.0%- MAG-7 | Monster Call $1.10
- Tec-9 | Brother $0.91
- MAC-10 | Allure $0.92
- Galil AR | Connexion $1.00
- MP5-SD | Kitbash $0.84
Classified
3.2%- M4A4 | Tooth Fairy $6.62
- Glock-18 | Vogue $6.41
- XM1014 | Entombed $5.22
Covert
0.6%- Desert Eagle | Printstream $50.71
- AK-47 | Legion of Anubis $43.05
Rare Special
0.3%- ★ Nomad Knife $179.50
- ★ Nomad Knife | Fade $333.18
- ★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web $185.41
- ★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter $222.61
- ★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened $254.56
- ★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked $158.96
- ★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel $151.05
- ★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe $132.58
- ★ Nomad Knife | Stained $125.25
- ★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT $70.95
- ★ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest $77.67
- ★ Nomad Knife | Scorched $100.64
- ★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh $79.01
- ★ Paracord Knife $114.18
- ★ Paracord Knife | Fade $195.70
- ★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web $115.02
- ★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter $145.13
- ★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened $164.12
- ★ Paracord Knife | Urban Masked $80.82
- ★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel $81.71
- ★ Paracord Knife | Night Stripe $56.36
- ★ Paracord Knife | Stained $74.30
- ★ Paracord Knife | Forest DDPAT $49.97
- ★ Paracord Knife | Boreal Forest $57.64
- ★ Paracord Knife | Scorched $68.42
- ★ Paracord Knife | Safari Mesh $41.49
- ★ Skeleton Knife $271.36
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade $492.96
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web $305.62
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter $374.33
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened $327.13
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked $134.87
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel $220.37
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe $155.63
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Stained $183.85
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT $113.20
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Boreal Forest $145.41
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Scorched $123.53
- ★ Skeleton Knife | Safari Mesh $122.58
- ★ Survival Knife $109.17
- ★ Survival Knife | Fade $159.18
- ★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web $133.79
- ★ Survival Knife | Slaughter $131.81
- ★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened $155.62
- ★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked $70.94
- ★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel $137.11
- ★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe $58.48
- ★ Survival Knife | Stained $59.50
- ★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT $55.46
- ★ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest $51.42
- ★ Survival Knife | Scorched $61.59
- ★ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh $57.39
Source: ByMykel CSGO-API · updated Oct 20, 2026 stale
Source: Skinport · updated Nov 8, 2026
Fracture Case FAQ
What are the odds of a knife or glove from the Fracture Case?
The Rare Special tier (knives and gloves) has a 0.3% drop chance, per Valve's official odds.
Is the Fracture Case worth opening?
On our estimate the Fracture Case returns about 36.1% of what you put in (a 63.9% house edge), using live Skinport prices. Like all cases, it is a losing bet on average.
How much does it cost to open the Fracture Case?
About $3.26 per open: a $2.49 key plus the case at $0.77.