CS2 Case Odds & Real EV
The one mystery box where the odds are public. We take Valve's official drop rates and price every skin against the live Skinport market to estimate each case's true return. Spoiler: the house edge is steep.
Best RTP this week 83.7%
CS:GO Weapon Case 3
Worst RTP 30.7%
CS:GO Weapon Case
Median RTP 54.2%
across 42 cases
Official drop odds
| Mil-Spec Grade | 79.9% |
| Restricted | 16.0% |
| Classified | 3.2% |
| Covert | 0.6% |
| Rare Special | 0.3% |
Valve/Perfect World 2017 disclosure (via SteamDB). A key costs $2.49.
All 42 cases
Sort:
| Case | RTP | EV | Cost | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | 83.7% | $18.07 | $21.58 | 16.3% |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | 76.5% | $18.83 | $24.62 | 23.5% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | 75.1% | $23.04 | $30.66 | 24.9% |
| Gamma Case | 69.2% | $4.36 | $6.30 | 30.8% |
| Operation Wildfire Case | 68.6% | $4.45 | $6.48 | 31.4% |
| Prisma Case | 67.7% | $2.90 | $4.29 | 32.3% |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | 67.5% | $6.24 | $9.25 | 32.5% |
| Shadow Case | 67.4% | $3.15 | $4.68 | 32.6% |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | 64.2% | $9.24 | $14.40 | 35.8% |
| Gamma 2 Case | 63.9% | $4.00 | $6.26 | 36.1% |
| Falchion Case | 63.5% | $2.86 | $4.50 | 36.5% |
| Chroma 2 Case | 61.9% | $4.21 | $6.81 | 38.1% |
| Revolver Case | 61.7% | $3.59 | $5.81 | 38.3% |
| Prisma 2 Case | 60.7% | $2.60 | $4.29 | 39.3% |
| Spectrum 2 Case | 59.2% | $3.52 | $5.94 | 40.8% |
| Horizon Case | 59.2% | $2.79 | $4.72 | 40.8% |
| Chroma Case | 57.5% | $4.62 | $8.02 | 42.5% |
| Chroma 3 Case | 56.6% | $3.61 | $6.38 | 43.4% |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | 56.2% | $4.05 | $7.22 | 43.8% |
| Spectrum Case | 55.3% | $3.90 | $7.04 | 44.7% |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | 54.6% | $7.48 | $13.69 | 45.4% |
| CS20 Case | 54.2% | $2.16 | $3.99 | 45.8% |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | 52.3% | $10.74 | $20.52 | 47.7% |
| Operation Hydra Case | 51.8% | $20.57 | $39.68 | 48.2% |
| Glove Case | 49.2% | $9.55 | $19.39 | 50.8% |
| Shattered Web Case | 48.4% | $4.56 | $9.42 | 51.6% |
| Snakebite Case | 47.8% | $1.73 | $3.62 | 52.2% |
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | 47.1% | $1.97 | $4.19 | 52.9% |
| Operation Riptide Case | 46.9% | $6.72 | $14.33 | 53.1% |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | 46.5% | $5.39 | $11.60 | 53.5% |
| Operation Broken Fang Case | 46.4% | $5.08 | $10.94 | 53.6% |
| Gallery Case | 46.4% | $2.20 | $4.74 | 53.6% |
| Danger Zone Case | 45.3% | $1.93 | $4.27 | 54.7% |
| Fever Case | 44.8% | $1.74 | $3.89 | 55.2% |
| Clutch Case | 41.5% | $1.43 | $3.45 | 58.5% |
| Recoil Case | 39.4% | $1.26 | $3.20 | 60.6% |
| Revolution Case | 38.7% | $1.21 | $3.12 | 61.3% |
| Operation Bravo Case | 37.8% | $28.27 | $74.89 | 62.2% |
| Fracture Case | 36.1% | $1.18 | $3.26 | 63.9% |
| Kilowatt Case | 36.0% | $1.08 | $2.99 | 64.0% |
| eSports 2013 Case | 31.4% | $24.52 | $78.11 | 68.6% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case | 30.7% | $49.32 | $160.76 | 69.3% |
Source: ByMykel CSGO-API · updated Oct 20, 2026 stale
Source: Skinport · updated Nov 8, 2026
EV is estimated: skin values assume a uniform float across wear bands, a 10% StatTrak mix, and knife/glove tiers averaged over priced finishes. Prices: Skinport. Full data: cs2-case-odds.json. Try any case in the calculator.