Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
Estimated return of 56.2% on every open — a 43.8% house edge at live Skinport prices.
Estimated RTP 56.2%
House edge 43.8%
Cost to open $7.22
key $2.49 + case $4.73
Chance to profit 4.1%
Most valuable drops
Rare Special ★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT $3014.09
Rare Special ★ Karambit | Fade $2041.04
Rare Special ★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened $1768.29
Rare Special ★ Karambit | Slaughter $1002.15
Rare Special ★ Karambit | Case Hardened $956.59
What's inside & the odds
Mil-Spec Grade
79.9%- UMP-45 | Corporal $0.68
- Negev | Terrain $0.77
- Tec-9 | Sandstorm $1.73
- MAG-7 | Heaven Guard $0.69
Restricted
16.0%- MAC-10 | Heat $4.69
- SG 553 | Pulse $3.65
- FAMAS | Sergeant $4.08
- USP-S | Guardian $6.29
Classified
3.2%- AK-47 | Redline $53.07
- P90 | Trigon $11.38
- Nova | Antique $12.43
Covert
0.6%- AWP | Asiimov $113.04
- AUG | Chameleon $85.71
Rare Special
0.3%- ★ Bayonet $328.95
- ★ Bayonet | Fade $429.65
- ★ Bayonet | Slaughter $307.25
- ★ Bayonet | Case Hardened $305.77
- ★ Bayonet | Night $171.30
- ★ Bayonet | Blue Steel $232.01
- ★ Bayonet | Crimson Web $260.59
- ★ Bayonet | Stained $167.51
- ★ Bayonet | Scorched $151.80
- ★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh $135.55
- ★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest $131.99
- ★ Bayonet | Urban Masked $146.09
- ★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT $3014.09
- ★ Flip Knife $209.44
- ★ Flip Knife | Fade $324.47
- ★ Flip Knife | Slaughter $285.73
- ★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened $187.17
- ★ Flip Knife | Night $146.29
- ★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel $210.65
- ★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web $216.99
- ★ Flip Knife | Stained $132.43
- ★ Flip Knife | Scorched $141.95
- ★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh $110.09
- ★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest $112.25
- ★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked $125.65
- ★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT $121.53
- ★ Gut Knife $114.66
- ★ Gut Knife | Fade $132.43
- ★ Gut Knife | Slaughter $149.88
- ★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened $216.43
- ★ Gut Knife | Night $58.95
- ★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel $93.19
- ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web $75.42
- ★ Gut Knife | Stained $68.87
- ★ Gut Knife | Scorched $71.42
- ★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh $50.76
- ★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest $66.50
- ★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked $71.02
- ★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT $49.32
- ★ Karambit $859.22
- ★ Karambit | Fade $2041.04
- ★ Karambit | Slaughter $1002.15
- ★ Karambit | Case Hardened $956.59
- ★ Karambit | Night $543.33
- ★ Karambit | Blue Steel $869.78
- ★ Karambit | Crimson Web $727.78
- ★ Karambit | Stained $525.41
- ★ Karambit | Scorched $438.81
- ★ Karambit | Safari Mesh $427.92
- ★ Karambit | Boreal Forest $426.99
- ★ Karambit | Urban Masked $664.27
- ★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT $421.43
- ★ M9 Bayonet $641.64
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Fade $916.22
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter $717.33
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened $1768.29
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Night $478.28
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel $534.08
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web $700.12
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Stained $378.18
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched $310.84
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh $320.30
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest $286.56
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked $393.64
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT $298.41
Source: ByMykel CSGO-API · updated Oct 20, 2026 stale
Source: Skinport · updated Nov 8, 2026
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case FAQ
What are the odds of a knife or glove from the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case?
The Rare Special tier (knives and gloves) has a 0.3% drop chance, per Valve's official odds.
Is the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case worth opening?
On our estimate the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case returns about 56.2% of what you put in (a 43.8% house edge), using live Skinport prices. Like all cases, it is a losing bet on average.
How much does it cost to open the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case?
About $7.22 per open: a $2.49 key plus the case at $4.73.