Operation Wildfire Case
Estimated return of 68.6% on every open — a 31.4% house edge at live Skinport prices.
Estimated RTP 68.6%
House edge 31.4%
Cost to open $6.48
key $2.49 + case $3.99
Chance to profit 10.5%
Most valuable drops
Rare Special ★ Bowie Knife | Fade $238.32
Rare Special ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter $200.01
Rare Special ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web $184.08
Rare Special ★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened $180.47
Covert AK-47 | Fuel Injector $173.67
What's inside & the odds
Mil-Spec Grade
79.9%- PP-Bizon | Photic Zone $1.09
- Dual Berettas | Cartel $1.42
- MAC-10 | Lapis Gator $2.40
- SSG 08 | Necropos $1.54
- Tec-9 | Jambiya $1.66
- USP-S | Lead Conduit $3.33
Restricted
16.0%- FAMAS | Valence $9.68
- Five-SeveN | Triumvirate $5.17
- Glock-18 | Royal Legion $7.47
- MAG-7 | Praetorian $4.75
- MP7 | Impire $6.17
Classified
3.2%- AWP | Elite Build $27.71
- Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon $31.05
- Nova | Hyper Beast $19.32
Covert
0.6%- AK-47 | Fuel Injector $173.67
- M4A4 | The Battlestar $49.88
Rare Special
0.3%- ★ Bowie Knife $147.47
- ★ Bowie Knife | Fade $238.32
- ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web $184.08
- ★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter $200.01
- ★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened $180.47
- ★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked $68.53
- ★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel $120.38
- ★ Bowie Knife | Night $80.78
- ★ Bowie Knife | Stained $94.49
- ★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT $70.91
- ★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest $59.06
- ★ Bowie Knife | Scorched $63.04
- ★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh $62.30
Source: ByMykel CSGO-API · updated Oct 20, 2026 stale
Source: Skinport · updated Nov 8, 2026
Operation Wildfire Case FAQ
What are the odds of a knife or glove from the Operation Wildfire Case?
The Rare Special tier (knives and gloves) has a 0.3% drop chance, per Valve's official odds.
Is the Operation Wildfire Case worth opening?
On our estimate the Operation Wildfire Case returns about 68.6% of what you put in (a 31.4% house edge), using live Skinport prices. Like all cases, it is a losing bet on average.
How much does it cost to open the Operation Wildfire Case?
About $6.48 per open: a $2.49 key plus the case at $3.99.