Shadow Case
Estimated return of 67.4% on every open — a 32.6% house edge at live Skinport prices.
Estimated RTP 67.4%
House edge 32.6%
Cost to open $4.68
key $2.49 + case $2.19
Chance to profit 8.1%
Most valuable drops
Rare Special ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade $175.11
Covert USP-S | Kill Confirmed $99.13
Rare Special ★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter $97.85
Rare Special ★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web $90.03
Rare Special ★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel $89.82
What's inside & the odds
Mil-Spec Grade
79.9%- Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons $1.23
- FAMAS | Survivor Z $2.74
- Glock-18 | Wraiths $2.27
- MAC-10 | Rangeen $0.81
- MAG-7 | Cobalt Core $1.02
- SCAR-20 | Green Marine $0.56
- XM1014 | Scumbria $0.67
Restricted
16.0%- Galil AR | Stone Cold $5.60
- M249 | Nebula Crusader $2.92
- MP7 | Special Delivery $3.11
- P250 | Wingshot $3.19
Classified
3.2%- AK-47 | Frontside Misty $31.36
- G3SG1 | Flux $17.19
- SSG 08 | Big Iron $17.46
Covert
0.6%- M4A1-S | Golden Coil $87.91
- USP-S | Kill Confirmed $99.13
Rare Special
0.3%- ★ Shadow Daggers $82.94
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Fade $175.11
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web $90.03
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter $97.85
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened $89.73
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked $53.15
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel $89.82
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Night $48.87
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Stained $61.89
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT $58.67
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest $42.44
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched $50.59
- ★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh $45.36
Source: ByMykel CSGO-API · updated Oct 20, 2026 stale
Source: Skinport · updated Nov 8, 2026
Shadow Case FAQ
What are the odds of a knife or glove from the Shadow Case?
The Rare Special tier (knives and gloves) has a 0.3% drop chance, per Valve's official odds.
Is the Shadow Case worth opening?
On our estimate the Shadow Case returns about 67.4% of what you put in (a 32.6% house edge), using live Skinport prices. Like all cases, it is a losing bet on average.
How much does it cost to open the Shadow Case?
About $4.68 per open: a $2.49 key plus the case at $2.19.