Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
Estimated return of 67.5% on every open — a 32.5% house edge at live Skinport prices.
Estimated RTP 67.5%
House edge 32.5%
Cost to open $9.25
key $2.49 + case $6.76
Chance to profit 12.1%
Most valuable drops
Rare Special ★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT $3014.09
Rare Special ★ Karambit | Fade $2041.04
Rare Special ★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened $1768.29
Rare Special ★ Karambit | Slaughter $1002.15
Rare Special ★ Karambit | Case Hardened $956.59
What's inside & the odds
Mil-Spec Grade
79.9%- G3SG1 | Murky $1.64
- MAG-7 | Firestarter $3.03
- MP9 | Dart $1.87
- Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard $5.38
- UMP-45 | Delusion $1.75
Restricted
16.0%- Glock-18 | Grinder $7.89
- M4A1-S | Basilisk $18.04
- M4A4 | Griffin $18.28
- Sawed-Off | Highwayman $2.63
Classified
3.2%- P250 | Cartel $16.05
- SCAR-20 | Cardiac $10.90
- XM1014 | Tranquility $19.08
Covert
0.6%- AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel $101.71
- P2000 | Fire Elemental $90.89
Rare Special
0.3%- ★ Bayonet $328.95
- ★ Bayonet | Fade $429.65
- ★ Bayonet | Slaughter $307.25
- ★ Bayonet | Case Hardened $305.77
- ★ Bayonet | Night $171.30
- ★ Bayonet | Blue Steel $232.01
- ★ Bayonet | Crimson Web $260.59
- ★ Bayonet | Stained $167.51
- ★ Bayonet | Scorched $151.80
- ★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh $135.55
- ★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest $131.99
- ★ Bayonet | Urban Masked $146.09
- ★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT $3014.09
- ★ Flip Knife $209.44
- ★ Flip Knife | Fade $324.47
- ★ Flip Knife | Slaughter $285.73
- ★ Flip Knife | Case Hardened $187.17
- ★ Flip Knife | Night $146.29
- ★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel $210.65
- ★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web $216.99
- ★ Flip Knife | Stained $132.43
- ★ Flip Knife | Scorched $141.95
- ★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh $110.09
- ★ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest $112.25
- ★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked $125.65
- ★ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT $121.53
- ★ Gut Knife $114.66
- ★ Gut Knife | Fade $132.43
- ★ Gut Knife | Slaughter $149.88
- ★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened $216.43
- ★ Gut Knife | Night $58.95
- ★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel $93.19
- ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web $75.42
- ★ Gut Knife | Stained $68.87
- ★ Gut Knife | Scorched $71.42
- ★ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh $50.76
- ★ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest $66.50
- ★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked $71.02
- ★ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT $49.32
- ★ Karambit $859.22
- ★ Karambit | Fade $2041.04
- ★ Karambit | Slaughter $1002.15
- ★ Karambit | Case Hardened $956.59
- ★ Karambit | Night $543.33
- ★ Karambit | Blue Steel $869.78
- ★ Karambit | Crimson Web $727.78
- ★ Karambit | Stained $525.41
- ★ Karambit | Scorched $438.81
- ★ Karambit | Safari Mesh $427.92
- ★ Karambit | Boreal Forest $426.99
- ★ Karambit | Urban Masked $664.27
- ★ Karambit | Forest DDPAT $421.43
- ★ M9 Bayonet $641.64
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Fade $916.22
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter $717.33
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened $1768.29
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Night $478.28
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel $534.08
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web $700.12
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Stained $378.18
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Scorched $310.84
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh $320.30
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest $286.56
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked $393.64
- ★ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT $298.41
Source: ByMykel CSGO-API · updated Oct 20, 2026 stale
Source: Skinport · updated Nov 8, 2026
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case FAQ
What are the odds of a knife or glove from the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
The Rare Special tier (knives and gloves) has a 0.3% drop chance, per Valve's official odds.
Is the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case worth opening?
On our estimate the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case returns about 67.5% of what you put in (a 32.5% house edge), using live Skinport prices. Like all cases, it is a losing bet on average.
How much does it cost to open the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
About $9.25 per open: a $2.49 key plus the case at $6.76.